Homes for sale are back at pre-pandemic levels, and fewer homes sold than a year ago. Across Bothell, Kirkland, Kenmore, Bellevue, Redmond and Woodinville, about 1,550 homes were for sale in July, up from about 970 last July; around 340 sold, against about 400 a year earlier. We're a more balanced market now, where buyers rarely have to outbid each other: about five months of supply, where under four favors sellers, four to six is balanced, and above six favors buyers. That's the most supply we've had since 2011.
For 22 straight months, from late 2020 into the summer of 2022, fewer homes were for sale than sold each month. In February 2022: 184 available, 515 sold. Today it has flipped: nearly three homes for sale for every one sold. Prices rose more or less steadily from 2012, accelerated during that 2020–2022 competition, and have eased since the spring of 2025: about 5% off that peak, still about 2.7 times the 2006 level.. A $400,000 home then runs about $1.06 million now.
The Mortgage Rate Thing Almost Everyone Gets Wrong
The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, and the gap between them, called the spread, has averaged about 1.76 points since 1971. Since August 2024 the Fed has cut by about 1.7 points, but the 30-year mortgage rate ended slightly higher. If anything, the order goes the other way: the 10-year moves first and the Fed follows. The number to watch is the 10-year Treasury yield.
What the Cities Have Already Decided
As required by the state's Growth Management Act, every city in the Puget Sound region adopts a new growth plan every 10 years that plans for the next 20. The 2024 plans run through 2044, and I read all of them. Two decisions matter. Most of the planned housing, roughly three-quarters to all of it, is set at or below 80% of area median income, about $117,000 for a family of four in King County, housing that only gets built when public subsidy covers the gap between what it costs and what those households can pay. And middle housing, the housing between big apartment buildings and single-family homes (duplexes up to sixplexes, townhouses, cottages), is now legal on nearly every residential lot. The classic house on its own lot is becoming a smaller share of what gets built, while the lot under it just gained building rights it never had. The first half supports what existing houses are worth; the second changes what a buyer can do with the land.
So Can You Buy? Can You Sell?
If you're buying: the most choice since before the pandemic. What you can afford, though, is determined by the payment at today's rate, and whether you'd still want the house if rates never came down.
If you're selling: price to the last comparable sale that closed, not to your neighbor's list price.
If you're holding a mortgage in the 2%–3% range: staying put makes sense, until the house no longer fits or the equity is waiting to get tapped into.
Curious about your home? Reply with your address and I'll run your numbers.
About these numbers
The charts show 12-month averages, not single months. That evens out the seasons, since winter is always slower than summer.
Homes for sale: the average number on the market in a month, over the past year. That's the roughly 930 on the chart. July by itself had about 1,550, because summer always runs above the yearly average.
Homes sold: sales that actually closed, averaged the same way.
What a home cost: the middle sale price, averaged the same way, and compared with 2006.
Any figure I quote for a specific month, like July, is that month on its own.
Market data: NWMLS via InfoSparks, single-family, Bothell, Kirkland, Kenmore, Bellevue, Redmond, Woodinville, through July 2026; homes sold are closed sales. Rates: Freddie Mac, U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve via FRED, through late August 2026. Income limits: King County Housing Authority. Plans: the adopted Puget Sound comprehensive plans and state session laws.